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Hey, they're more in China here. Found off the mind Sight Academy, Europe Coach to executives, lead US entrepreneur ls on the neural leadership trainer, using insights from neuro science to help you flourish on exceed expectations. Welcome back to another episode ofthe Lied to Excel Podcasts. And, as usual, I am so thrilled to be with you today because, as we're about to come out of lock down, I feel it's a good time to do this podcast. So to this podcast is titled Behaviour Change as we exit log down. So without wasting much time, let's get into the podcast with no vaccine or medication to cope with this novel coronavirus, people all over the world have been forced to change behaviours and actions in large and small ways, from more frequent washing off hands to social distance in with the move to Lenin and using online platforms to beat this pandemic, we need an evil, more rapid change off behaviour patterns. Now, according to W. Rachel, as off that yet April mother, three million people have been infected with this virus on over 208,000 have lost their lives. My sincere condolences to all families who've lost a loved one on I will use this opportunity to appreciate on comment health workers, laboratory staff, biomedical scientists all over the world who have put themselves on the frontline to help save lives and come up with. In fact, since our medications to help stop the spread, the global spread of the virus has over one country's health systems on cost. Why spread social and economic destruction we're not looking are coming out of lock down on this has to be managed effectively to avoid another spike on. One of the challenges is that it's really important that we stay connected because positive social relationships affect the Homo. No cardiovascular, an immune systems off the body, thereby enhancing health and well being on the nature of relationships themselves, where people experience positive relationship with others. Oxytocin, a health enhancing Homan, is released in the body, leading to lower blood pressure and heart rate on DH on enhanced ability. Tto handle stress calmly. Positive social contacts lessen the physiological reaction in the body to stress, so the body works less hard to cope under the effects of stressful conditions. It also has a calming effect on the mind the Muse system is also positively affected by positive relationships, as people in positive relationships have greater resistance toe operas, respiratory infections off which coronaviruses one off them. Positive relationships foster greater resiliency, andan ability to adapt and bounced back from different experiences. The question, though, is what's the next step? It's believed that Cove in 19 Pandemic began from butts near Wuhan in China. At these buds hold a mix of Corona vinyl strains on sometime last fall, one of the strengths opportunistic enough to cross B she lines left its host or hosts on ended up in a person. Then it was literally on the loose. What no one knows yet, though, is how this pandemic will end. This Corona virus is unprecedented in the combination off how easily it's transmitted the range of symptoms going from Nana at all to deadly on the extent at which it has disrupted the world. The near exponential spread has made this a very experience for even the scientists, but past pandemics offer some kind of hint off what the future might look like. While there's no historical example to follow, humanity has gone through several large epidemics in the past 100 or so years that eventually stopped ravaging the society on the ways in which they were controlled off our guidance toe. How a suppose we can restore health and some sense of normalcy on what that normalcy would look like, who knows. But one thing is, I believe that's the new normal would be so different from pre Corona virus days on. What happens next also depends on both the evolution off this pathogen on off the human response to with both biological and social. So let's talk about how viruses spread. Generally, viruses are constantly mutating until cause a pandemic means that the human immune system does not respond quickly or recognise this dangerous invader. The body is thereby foster, creating brand new defence involving your antibodies on over immune system components that can react on attacked invader. In most cases, antibodies that are developed by the Muse System Tau fight off the invader linger in enough off the affected population took off a long term immunity on thereby limits present two person viral transmission, but that can take several years on. Before it happens, it can wreak havoc on the world off society in the H one n one influenza outbreak ofthe 1918 there were fewer resources available at that time to have an effective response on the kind of response we've been able to have today, I'm over two year period. They witnessed three waves off the pandemic where it infected about 500 millions on killed over 50 million people. It ended on Lee as natural infections confed immunity off. Those who recovered that h one n one strain became endemic, circulating for another, probably 40 years as a seasonal virus until 1957 when the edge to enter pandemic began, which kicked out the H one n one in 2000 and three. We also experienced another severe acute respiratory syndrome sands, which this time was not by an influenza virus but by a Corona virus, which was the SAS cough. And this is believed to be closely related to the cause ofthe this current pandemic, which is this US cough, too? Off the several non human corona viruses for circulate, widely costing up to 1/3 of common calls that we experience every year. The one that caused this outbreak was farm off virulent but being able to isolate the Sikh on Corrine signed their contacts on Also Implements in Social Controls limited the outbreaks to a few locations, such as Hong Kong and Toronto. This containment wass possible because sicknesses followed infection very quickly on DH. It was quite obvious where the source was from because almost all people with the virus had serious symptoms such as fever on troubling breathing on. They also transmitted the virus after getting quite seek not before. It's interesting that this or that size we're not actually contagious until maybe a week after symptoms appeared, unlike this current one, which were experiencing where it seems that you're actually infected before you become symptomatic. So when the H one influenza virus, which is known as the swine flu, cost the pandemic in 2009 if Maxie was they've looked after six months on, this was mainly due to the fact that it turned out not to be as virulent on initially feared or like missiles on smallpox vaccines, which can cough a long term immunity flu vaccines on lee off a few years off protection. Influenza viruses are very slippery because they're muted so rapidly to escape immunity. As a result, these vaccines must be objected every year on given regularly, the 2009 vaccine for swine flu helped to temper a second with off cases in winter. So back to the question off how this pandemic will end. How this pandemic will unfold is all speculated ve on. It will most likely evolve a mix of everything. Let from these past pandemics, that we've experienced things like continued social control measures to buy time, new antiviral medications to help East symptoms and, hopefully, at the end, a vaccine. The exact length oftime off how long these control measures would be in place is really unknown. A lot of people are asking the question. How long would this control measures being place? The fact is that nobody knows, because it all depends in large part on how strictly people of bed the restrictions on how effectively governments can respond, For example, containment measures that what for Cove in 19 in places such as Hong Kong on South Korea came far too late in Europe and in the US, The question off how the pandemic plays out is going to depend on social, political and science. If any of the several antiviral medications currently development come out as being effective, they will help improve treatment options on lower the numbers who gets seriously eel or who die from the infection? From my research, I've discovered that the a few techniques that have been developed to screen Volkov in 19 things like neutralising antibodies, which is an indicator off immunity that has been developed from people who have recovered from the virus. This could also prove to be very useful because this antibody reach blood from people that have recovered, could then be used as a treatment for critically ill patients. This can actually help get people, but to work faster if those who have fought off the virus on my immune can be identified so that their antibody reached blood can then be used to treat people who have the infection or who are really ill. It will definitely take a vaccine to stop transmission, but that will definitely take a long time, probably a year from now or even longer. Compared with flu viruses, Corona viruses don't have as many ways to interact with the host cell. So the key is finding a vaccine that interface with that interaction because once that interaction goes away, then it means that the virus cannot replicate anymore on. That's the advantage that we have here. It's not clear whether the vaccine will confer a long term immunity like the measles vaccine or when I could have a shot, um, immunity as the flu shots, which we already have. But the fact is that any vaccine at all would be helpful. At this point. It is very possible that Cove in 19 will become on endemic because it's literally impossible to administer the wall's eight billion inhabitants with this vaccine once it's developed. So this would mean that the virus will keep circulating and make people sick seasonally and sometimes may be very sick as well. The combination of vaccination a natural immunity is what is going to protect many of us. The Corona virus, like most viruses, would live on, but not as a planetary plague as we experiencing now. So what do we do to ensure that we can stay safe? We've got to carry on doing this small actions that were doing now to achieve the big results that we want at the end. So it's about breaking the habits of a lifetime and creates in slightly different habits, so embed these new behaviours that we wll enduring log down. We need to keep having such remind us to remind people toe. Keep those new behaviours going, for example, painting lines on the walking path. Would grey long wayto help to show what it to meet? Our separation looks like a lot off grocery shops have started doing it, and I believe they should be continued. Helping people break the habit off. Touching their faces is another important thing, because the virus infects people through the mucus membranes that lined the nose on airways on. I recently read about a suggestion of a possible software on smartphones, which could alert people to stop touching their faces. The problem in all this is really compliance, because it hinges on giving people the tools that they need to easily follow these new rules for how much on how many will comply with it. So it is the little small things that I believe would make a difference on. There's also suggest you re certainly that if there's a mask available from the dispense on the front of the building, people were more likely want to put it on something as the easy availability off things like hand sanitizers as well. But we need to make sure that we don't end up going back to where we've just come out from. So making this behaviour change is easy to maintain is really what is important to ensure that we keep achieving the gains that we have achieved. SOFA has been obvious that compliance during the pandemic started declining over time, so the government needs to take measures to avoid backsliding on having another wave so that whatever measures put in place is really tolerable for people. I believe it's really opening leisure centres, things like golf courses, sports fields, packs as well so that people can get outside without being cramped together in dust, which really has been a big issue for a lot of people. Understandably, organisations also not have to look at ways off making remote walking in Nam. So you know this. We know that ending the Corona virus logged on will be a dangerous process and it's going to be a lot of trial and error. There's the unending question about what the exit strategy is going to be on our someone rightly said. We've managed to get to the life raft, but the question is, how will we get to the show? As every country is not looking at the path to move forward, governments now need to make sure that they triangulate the health off their citizens. People's freedom, Andi economic constraints as well and a lot of questions to be asked and answered. How soon can schools be re opened, where restaurants be re opened? On what will be nature of that be what off buzz would Busby re opened? What would that look like? Can people go back to their offices on that whole process needs to be looked at? Were we encouraging a lot off social distancing within the restaurants, on bus on, even at work, a lot of remote working like, As I explained earlier, most researchers agree that re opening society would be in Long Hole on DH. It's going to be a lot off trying things out and see what works and what doesn't work. What is most important is that it has to be with baby steps, so in this next phase that we're going into when I'm not going to be looking at the numbers off people per day that have been infected. But now that the pandemic has been chained in a lot of countries, the next focus is really trying to loosen restrictions while keeping the number ofthe infected people to a very low minimum when each affected person on average, affects one other person keeping the number of new cases study is really vital to regulate the spread on keep it at least below it's such a number will involve isolating patients on DH, possibly tracing their contacts. Bother restrictions will still need to be in place to some extent on continued social distancing, it's also looking are countries that have gone ahead and I've managed to keep the epidemics in cheque like Hong Kong and South Korea that they've done this true. The use ofthe being able to identify and isolate cases early on, trace under quarantine, their contacts while often imposing on Lee light restrictions on the rest of their society. But this strategy depends on massively scaling up testing, which has been hampered by scarcity of re agents. On other materials. Contact tracing is another Hoddle on it's labour intensive. A recent suggestion was that mobile phone apps could help by automatically identifying or letting people who recently had contact with an infected person. Google and Apple have team doctor incorporated contact racing up in the operating systems, so it be interesting to see how that works. Germany, France and other countries are also developing APS, but the question is, Can you make this? Technology is compulsory. I suppose China have done that. But how can a country and show that enough people download an app for it to provide reliable information on DH also influenced the spread of the disease. On another big question is what actually counts as a contact because for someone that lives in a big apartment block, who is probably going to be getting dozens of notifications a day could be a problem on also the widespread use off ABS. Will father drive up the demand for testing as well? Is this something that countries can cope with? Many countries have started quarantining they're returning citizens, which helps father minimised the risk off the introductions off the virus. And hopefully some of these measures would remain in place for a while to help reduce transmission domestically. On also preventing risk of new outbreaks from these returning travellers. Now social distancing, which has been the backbone ofthe this current strategy to deal with this pandemic, has snowed. The spread of the virus, as we have seen it, comes at the greatest economic and social cost on DH. We know that many countries are so eager to now relax these constraints. Austria has taken the lead by opening small shops already. Other stars are. Malls are scheduled to be open later on. In some countries there, restaurants are following suit very soon because we've had no controlled experiments to know how effective different types of social distancing measures have worked. It's really difficult to make an evidence based policy about what to do. So the fact is that as authorities around the world choose their different parts forward, a lot of comparison is goingto have to be made to see what works and what doesn't work. So there's going to be a lot of experimentation. There's going to be a lot of trial and error because ofthe politics on local situations, and people need to bear this in mind to prevent a lot of agitation. As we've experienced with a lock down. There's one other important Fattal that will also determine how safe it sees to loosen the reins on. That's immunity, because every single person who becomes infected on develops immunity makes it harder for the virus to spread, which is a great thing. So if we get roughly about 40% of the population immune, that really starts to change the whole picture, because this will help the immunity to build up as more people become infected. So the exit strategy for now the most likely scenario is going to be one ofthe season social distancing measures when it's possible, then possibly climbing down again when infections climbed back up on the strategy that Singapore on Hong Konger pursuing, which is a suppressor leave strategy. So whatever strike the right balance between keeping the virus at bay on easing dis content on economic damage, it's going to be one of our main options. I feel that it will take years off painstaking research to shop on the picture off. The real impact on reach off this virus on a science races ahead with intensive research. We might actually end up in a similar situation to what we have with HIV. We an effective vaccine was never developed, so the treatment ofthe Corona virus might actually be with a combination of different drugs. I feel that what is important now is that people need to be a lot on away. That behaviours needs to be changed and to really be able to embed these new behaviour patterns, there has to be subtle. Messages are remind us so that people don't sleep back into old habits on whereby we end up back having another wave off this virus. So a lot of unknowns on the fact is that we've got to really appreciate on us, said the fact that the government don't know their scientists don't know. Nobody knows so we're really just trying things out, and it is really a strategy of trial and error because we do not know what the right thing is. So I think everyone needs to be patient. Everyone needs to do their bit on. Everyone needs to be a lot so that we can move really fast to take what action we need to take to really get us to a place where the infection is steady on hopefully less people are dying from it as well so that we can get to a place we had. Most of the population have built up an immunity to this coveted 90 virus. So I hope you found this really useful on. I hope it has also given you hope that we can get through this because we will get through it. But we just need to be patient on, not get ourselves agitated because they march it. It's that people get, then the more print they are actually getting the infection. I'm probably getting it really bad, So it's really important that everyone is resilient but physically, emotionally on DH, unprofessional in any way that you are, we need to be resilient. We need a muse system to be resilient. We need to keep ourselves healthy so that we can fight this infection un really be able to make the right decisions as a at a government level, as a family level at a business level on whatever capacity or area were. So I look forward to seeing you in the next episode. Remember to subscribe to this podcast wherever you listen to it, and please give me a five star review. So but my podcast can reach more people on help. More people do. Look after yourself. Keep well on. Do stay safe. Have a great week.